Several new polls show President Obama with a wide lead in many swing-states. Some say there is a bias.
Of course, the polls could be wrong. But it seems unlikely that the people who do the polls would show a deliberate bias as this would tend to destroy any credibility in the long-run.
But there could be all sorts of unintentional bias. Younger voters tend to have cell phone rather than landlines and so might not get the call. I have a landline but tend to look at my caller-ID and not pick up calls from numbers I don’t recognize and that don’t attempt to leave a message. Some who indicate they are probable voters might not actually vote.
There are probably quite a few other reasons. But the one that came to mind is voter suppression as a consequence of the Voter ID laws mainly sponsored by Republican legislatures. This seems to be a factor here in Pennsylvania.
2 things:
1. I just noticed that my thoughts on my final point may not have not quite connected for many readers. I meant that there would be some who identified themselves as probable voters who would not turn out to be actual voters. And one reason for this would be the inability to vote because of the new Pennsylvania voter-ID law.
2. I should now note that the voter-ID law will not prevent people from voting for lack of approved ID. At least that is how it looks now based on the latest court ruling.